Suns to eclipse Heat in forecast

By Joaquin Henson
Philippine Star
Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Oddsmakers failed to reach a consensus as to which teams are likely to advance to the Last Dance in the NBA this season and that’s a sure sign of unpredictability in the race to the top.

While the San Antonio Spurs are the sentimental favorites to repeat, the jury is still out on whether coach Gregg Popovich can work the old magic in the Finals with only a few tweaks in his lineup. That’s because the serious contenders made dramatic offseason roster adjustments and look ready to challenge the Spurs for the coveted Larry O’Brien trophy.

History isn’t on the Spurs side as no San Antonio squad has ever won back-to-back titles. But Popovich is determined to break the jinx, gunning for his fifth crown since 1999. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are back for another run. Nothing much is expected from new hires Iam Mahinmi of France, Ime Udoka of Nigeria and Darius Washington of Memphis as the holdovers try to defend the fort.

The NBA opened its new season last night with the Spurs taking on Portland, the Los Angeles Lakers hosting Houston and Golden State facing Utah.

In the West, San Antonio will be hard pressed to stave off Phoenix. The Suns nearly barged into the Finals last year and are out for redemption. Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw and Shawn Marion welcome Grant Hill to the pack. If the Suns keep their composure, they’re capable of blowing any team—including the Spurs—off the court any day or night. Coach Mike D’Antoni’s problem is preserving his players for the late stretch because they like to go full throttle from the early going.

Dallas was upset by Golden State in the first round of the playoffs last season and the implosion cast doubts on MVP Dirk Nowitzki’s ability to deliver under pressure. Eddie Jones was brought in to add firepower and experience but if the Big Teuton continues to choke in the clutch, neither owner Mark Cuban nor coach Avery Johnson can do much to turn things around.

The Lakers will always be a threat with Kobe Bryant in the fold. Coach Phil Jackson has learned to live with Bryant who showed remarkable maturity in playing for the US squad at the recent FIBA-Americas Olympic qualifiers. If Bryant can appreciate his teammates a little more, it’ll be a lot easier for him to take the Lakers to the next level. Unfortunately, the return of Derek Fisher (from Utah) and Chris Mihm (from sick bay) isn’t such a convincing argument for Bryant to reform.

Denver has to be the Western darkhorse because Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin and J. R. Smith comprise a lethal unit. Coach George Karl has only to push the right buttons for the Nuggets to explode. If the Nuggets learn how to share the ball, they could be something special.

Houston’s new coach Rick Adelman has high hopes for the Rockets whose nucleus of Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and Steve Francis will get a boost from Bonzi Wells, Argentinian center Luis Scola and Mike James. This could be the year when Houston finally advances beyond the first round of the playoffs.

In the East, Miami could be the surprise. Heat coach Pat Riley liked the taste of the championship two years ago and is itching for a reprise. Injured star Dwyane Wade won’t be in the active list at the start but he’ll come along. As insurance, Riley plucked Ricky Davis from Minnesota. He also signed up veterans Penny Hardaway, Smush Parker and Mark Blount to back up Jason Williams, Alonzo Mourning and Shaquille O’Neal. Displaced in the mix were Antoine Walker and Michael Doleac who hooked up with the Timberwolves.

Chicago has an energetic cast that counts on Ben Wallace, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, newly-hired Joe Smith and 6-11 rookie Joakim Noah of NCAA champion Florida. Coach Scott Skiles is a tested motivator who has a knack for getting the different parts in a machine to work in unison. The Bulls are hungry to relive the glory of the Michael Jordan era. The lack of a Jordan-type, go-to guy is a damper.

Orlando posted a 6-1 record in the preseason and prized center Dwight Howard is looking more and more like Shaq’s improved version. New coach Stan Van Gundy moved in high-scoring Rashard Lewis from Seattle and now has a potent 1-2, inside-outside combination to wreak havoc all over the league. Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo and J. J. Redick provide support from the backcourt. Hedo Turkoglu is a gem at the three spot.

Detroit coach Flip Saunders can’t get over his misfortunate in the playoffs last season. Losing to Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals was a huge blow. But it’s a dent the Pistons are confident of leaving behind as past history. Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Antonio McDyess and Lindsay Hunter are moving forward and they’ll make sure no accident happens again.

There’s talk that Juwan Howard is joining LeBron James in Cleveland. Coach Mike Brown is desperately looking for reinforcements, realizing Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and Donyell Marshall won’t cut it for the Cavs. But even if Howard jumps in, he won’t make a big difference.

Like Jordan, James needs a Scottie Pippen to lean on – a cool, reliable partner to watch his back. Unfortunately, Brown has nobody in the lineup to play the role. James managed to bring the Cavs to the Finals once. Doing a repeat will require a miracle.

Boston is undisputedly the Eastern darkhorse, what with Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Eddie House and James Posey locking arms with Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. Chemistry is a big question mark but coach Doc Rivers is optimistic he’s got the answer.

The Sporting News predicted Phoenix to beat Chicago in the Finals while Lindy’s chose San Antonio over Cleveland in a conservative opinion. From the looks of things, anything can happen. Injuries, mental toughness, coaching adjustments and cohesiveness will be major factors in determining how far each team goes.

When the smoke of battle clears, it’ll be Phoenix on top of the heap with Miami biting the dust.